Description: A summary of the activities of the Forecasting & Futurism Section, including research initiatives, participation in Delphi studies and sponsoring of seminars.

Description: Discussion of several short stories by featured author Steve Mathys. Mathys was the winner of the 10th Speculative Fiction Contest Forecasting and Futurism Section prize.

Description: Feature article discussing the difficult situation of actuarial forecasting with little or no date.

Description: Description of the vast variety of predictive analytics topics covered by the Forecasting & Futurism section and introduction to the July 2015 issue of the newsletter.

Description: Specifies 6 rules which help shape not only good crime-scene analysis, but good futures practice, as well. These rules address project management and control.

Description: In Complexity: A Guided Tour, readers are given a short history lesson on the roots of dynamical systems theory, chaos and prediction.

Description: The purpose of this article is to provide a refresher on regression and times series models so that actuaries will feel more comfortable building forecasting models.

Description: This article discusses steps to follow to ensure a more rational and productive approach to data analysis.

Description: The author reviews the book, The Perfect Swarm: The Science of Complexity in Everyday Life, by Len Fisher. He provides his own interpretation of the power of the swarm and touts the book as a straightforward and informative introduction to various aspects of complexity science.

Description: At the 2009 SOA Annual Meeting in Boston, Nassim Nicholas Taleb shared some thoughts on Black Swans, operating in the fourth quadrant, and living in the world of Extremistan versus Mediocristan during his keynote speech, all of which can be found in his published work. The follow-up session, summarized in this article, addresses the real question: What do we actuaries do about these phenomena?